KEIUS#573 US · #1358 by MGI
Kolibri Global Energy Inc.
Analysis last updated Jul 28, 2026. Market data (price, market cap) is the latest available and may differ.
Growth · Value − Threat = Opportunity. Each 0–100. How we score.
Overview
Kolibri Global Energy is an independent oil producer that generates revenue by drilling horizontal wells into stacked shale benches in the Tishomingo Field, a roughly 17,135-net-acre position in Oklahoma's Ardmore Basin. The company sells oil, natural gas, and NGLs at prevailing commodity prices through midstream arrangements, with oil representing the overwhelming share of revenue. Operating costs run near $7.50 to $8.00 per BOE, keeping margins strong while WTI holds above $65. The production base sits around 4,700 to 5,200 BOEPD after a systematic program of 1.5- to 2-mile lateral wells targeting primarily the Lower Caney formation.
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The six lenses
Kolibri's competitive position rests on a proprietary acreage foothold and accumulated horizontal-drilling know-how in a formation where few peers have invested. Low lifting costs near $7. 50 to $8. …
Learn the principle →At a market capitalization well below $1B, size imposes no penalty on runway, and the question reduces entirely to opportunity scope. The Tishomingo Field offers a finite but meaningful inventory: roughly 32 million proved BOE with 71% undeveloped, plus exploration upside in unbooked benches like the False Caney, Upper Caney, T-zone, and Sycamore. …
Learn the principle →Revenue compounded at roughly 32% annually over five years through systematic drilling and lateral-length extension from one-mile to two-mile designs, with a 35% three-year production CAGR. Q1 2026 was the strongest quarter in company history, with 20% year-over-year revenue growth and a 50% operating margin; 2026 guidance targets 17 to 30% production growth as the Clifton Mack pad and a False Caney test come online. ROIC of 11% is respectable for a small E&P, and unit economics near $7. …
Learn the principle →Net debt of approximately $45M is modest relative to proved reserve NPV independently assessed above $440M, and the company targets reducing that figure to $25 to $30M by year-end 2026. Gross margins of 84% and operating margins above 40% reflect a low-cost operating structure. Free cash flow is currently negative as growth capex of $39 to $43M exceeds operating cash generation, but management projects meaningful positive FCF as the drilling program matures. …
Learn the principle →CEO Wolf Regener's most consequential decision was retaining Caney and Upper Sycamore rights when the company sold Woodford Shale acreage to ExxonMobil for $147M in 2013, preserving the assets that define the current development program. Capital allocation has been disciplined, with ongoing share buybacks alongside active debt reduction and the 2026 drilling program fully funded ahead of spud. …
Learn the principle →Kolibri's entire revenue base flows from a single field in southern Oklahoma, creating concentrated geological, operational, and pricing risk with no diversification buffer. Revenue declined in 2025 despite production growth because WTI oil prices fell, illustrating near-total dependence on commodity prices the company cannot influence. At roughly $8. …
Learn the principle →Business profile
Energy · Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Management
How the people running it lead, execute, and allocate capital.
The team's defining capital-allocation move was retaining Caney and Upper Sycamore rights when selling Woodford Shale acreage to ExxonMobil for $147M in 2013, preserving the assets that define the company today. Under CEO Regener's stewardship, proved developed reserves grew 30% in fiscal 2025, production compounded at 35% annually over three years, and the company transitioned from a gas-weighted to a liquids-rich producer while keeping net debt below $50M.
Scorecard
- Moat27Weak
- Runway36Moderate
- Growth Engine50Moderate
- Financials49Moderate
- Management52Moderate
- Risks25Weak
Six lenses, each 0–100 and rated Strong / Moderate / Weak; the swing factor most decides the outcome. What each lens means.
Fundamentals
How it makes money
Revenue by segment, sized by share. Click a segment for the full detail.
Valuation
Live market multiples, plus a separate estimate of what the business is worth. Information only, not a price target.
Per-share figures (last close, 52-week range, fair value) are in CAD, the local trading currency. Market caps are shown in USD for cross-market comparison; the multiples above are currency-neutral ratios.
Forward Multiple. ~8.5x FY2026E EBIT of ~$43M (LTM $84M revenue growing 17-30% at ~43% operating margin), crosschecked against proved reserve NAV independently assessed above $440M implying equity NAV ~$395M before commodity/execution discounts
ConfidenceLimited42/100What's priced in: The market looks too cautious.
The market prices Kolibri at roughly half its independently assessed proved reserve NAV and only 7.9x trailing EBIT on a production base growing 17-30% in 2026, implying it captures none of the unbooked upside in the False Caney and Upper Caney benches; on a forward earnings basis the stock appears meaningfully undervalued, though the single-basin, single-commodity structure and energy transition headwinds make that cheapness appropriate company to accept only for investors comfortable with concentrated commodity risk.
Competes with
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Scores over time
Each nightly run adds a point; trends build as history accumulates.
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