CNXUS#476 US · #1096 by MGI
CNX Resources Corporation
Analysis last updated Jul 31, 2026. Market data (price, market cap) is the latest available and may differ.
Growth · Value − Threat = Opportunity. Each 0–100. How we score.
Overview
CNX Resources is an independent natural gas producer and integrated midstream operator concentrated entirely in the Appalachian Basin, drawing production from Marcellus and Utica shale positions spanning over one million net acres in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. Revenue derives from natural gas sales into regional markets, a layered hedging program managing realized price exposure, and an emerging stream of clean-fuel production credits tied to coal-mine methane capture operations at the Buchanan complex; the company also owns and operates roughly 2,600 miles of gathering infrastructure that integrates production logistics and compresses per-unit costs below less-integrated Appalachian peers. The bull case rests on converging catalysts: data center buildouts along the East Coast and expanding LNG export capacity are pulling Appalachian demand higher; the Deep Utica formation holds multi-decade drilling inventory at declining per-foot costs; and a persistent share-buyback program run countercyclically amplifies per-share value as the float shrinks. What the thesis demands is sustained gas price improvement to activate the Deep Utica program at scale, disciplined execution under CEO Alan Shepard who assumed the role in January 2026, and successful conversion of environmental attribute credits into a durable recurring cash stream, none of which is yet resolved.
The six lenses
CNX's competitive edge rests on two operational pillars: roughly 2,600 miles of owned gathering pipelines integrating midstream logistics with upstream drilling to suppress per-unit costs, and an Appalachian acreage position where well costs run near $1,700 per lateral foot, among the basin's lowest. These advantages are real but structurally bounded. …
Learn the principle →At roughly $5 billion in market capitalization, size imposes no constraint on the compounding path. The challenge is the opportunity set: management runs a deliberately flat production profile, reserving incremental activity for periods of sustained higher gas prices or Deep Utica commercialization. …
Learn the principle →The reported five-year revenue CAGR reflects commodity price cycles far more than volume expansion; production is intentionally stable, making this a capital-return rather than volume-growth story. ROIC near 11% is solid for an Appalachian producer and unit economics in the Marcellus are sound, with FCF conversion near 20%. …
Learn the principle →CNX carries approximately $2. 4 billion in net debt against a $5. 1 billion market cap, an elevated leverage ratio offset by an LTM FCF margin near 20% and operating margins above 40%. The balance sheet was actively restructured in recent periods, replacing near-term maturities with a new 5. …
Learn the principle →Outgoing CEO Nick DeIuliis, who transitioned to the board at year-end 2025 after more than three decades at CNX, built a track record as a countercyclical capital allocator executing persistent share buybacks through commodity troughs and expanding the Deep Utica land position through the Apex Energy acquisition closed in January 2025. Incoming CEO Alan Shepard assumed the role on January 1, 2026, bringing an internal CNX background but without an established standalone executive track record. …
Learn the principle →CNX's central vulnerability is commodity price exposure: essentially all free cash flow sensitivity is tied to Appalachian natural gas realizations, which fluctuate with Henry Hub dynamics, regional pipeline capacity, and seasonal demand. Pipeline capacity constraints in the basin limit production growth independently of rig activity, and permitting risk in Pennsylvania adds an operational dimension to regulatory exposure. …
Learn the principle →Business profile
Energy · Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Management
How the people running it lead, execute, and allocate capital.
Under Nick DeIuliis, who led CNX from 2014 through year-end 2025, the company executed persistent countercyclical share repurchases through commodity troughs while growing proved reserves to approximately 9.7 Tcfe and executing the Apex Energy acquisition (closed January 2025) to expand the Deep Utica acreage position in core Pennsylvania. New CEO Alan Shepard assumed the role on January 1, 2026, with an internal operational background at CNX but without a standalone executive track record yet established in the top seat.
Scorecard
- Moat36Moderate
- Runway48Moderate
- Growth Engine39Moderate
- Financials52Moderate
- Management60Moderate
- Risks43Moderate
Six lenses, each 0–100 and rated Strong / Moderate / Weak; the swing factor most decides the outcome. What each lens means.
Fundamentals
How it makes money
Revenue by segment. Click a segment for the full detail.
Valuation
Live market multiples, plus a separate estimate of what the business is worth. Information only, not a price target.
Forward Multiple. 10.2x forward FCF on ~$520M run-rate FCF (20% margin on stable $2.6B revenue base), a modest premium to sector for integrated midstream and countercyclical buyback program, offset by $2.4B net debt and full commodity exposure
ConfidenceModerate52/100What's priced in: Roughly fairly priced.
The market is pricing CNX at roughly 10x FCF with ~2% annual revenue growth implied — a number consistent with what a deliberately flat-production Appalachian gas producer actually delivers, making this a roughly fair valuation. Data center demand and LNG export tailwinds provide real gas-price optionality and Deep Utica upside, but those catalysts are shared across all basin peers and require sustained price improvement to activate, so they warrant only a small lift above the current price rather than a decisive gap.
Competes with
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Scores over time
Each nightly run adds a point; trends build as history accumulates.
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